I share your concerns regarding a potential regime shift. A few weeks ago, I rotated my SPY exposure into a 50/50 split of Berkshire Hathaway and the RSP. My thesis is that the primary risk is concentrated in 'Magnificent 7' valuations rather than the 'MAG493,' which still appear reasonably priced.
I suspect non hyperscalers will initially see margin expansion as AI agents replace white collar functions, with the MAG7 effectively subsidizing the rest of the market's growth. However, as rising unemployment inevitably suppresses aggregate demand, I don't see a world where a decline in consumption and deflation is tolerated for long. Mass government intervention will occur, including the "AI implementation taxes" you mentioned, which would effectively negate earlier margin gains. Nevertheless, I expect a final leg up driven by this efficiency boom before that intervention takes hold.
In this new era, I have been thinking about what it actually means to have a moat. It might come down to having the strongest balance sheets with a low cost of capital, critical physical infrastructure, or proprietary licenses.
While I have been bullish on the hypergambling trend, the threat of mass unemployment creates a fork in the road. It remains to be seen if this environment stifles speculation or triggers 2021 style stimulus measures that propel speculation to new highs.
Definitely much uncertainty, which made me raise cash and position quite defensively and avoid hyperscalers in index funds.
Which companies do you own that will perform in a market nuke
$ROPE best way to express a market nuke
mythical reel pull
Really well-written. I probably disagree with mostly everything!
Great analysis! My question is, is it just me, or will Donald Trump appoint a new Fed Chairman (May 15, 2026) who actually supports launching the D-USD (Digital U.S. Dollar)? What would an announcement like that do to BTCUSD? https://cenreico.substack.com/p/spike-in-gold-is-telling-us-something?r=5yuxxv
Long or Short in 2026?
✅
Great read, well written. Any chance you can briefly un-private your X account please? Would love to read more of your thoughts there too
Thoughtful post
TLDR uncertainty is real , time to take a directional bet.
Fantastic read. I would pay for this. Please keep going!
I share your concerns regarding a potential regime shift. A few weeks ago, I rotated my SPY exposure into a 50/50 split of Berkshire Hathaway and the RSP. My thesis is that the primary risk is concentrated in 'Magnificent 7' valuations rather than the 'MAG493,' which still appear reasonably priced.
I suspect non hyperscalers will initially see margin expansion as AI agents replace white collar functions, with the MAG7 effectively subsidizing the rest of the market's growth. However, as rising unemployment inevitably suppresses aggregate demand, I don't see a world where a decline in consumption and deflation is tolerated for long. Mass government intervention will occur, including the "AI implementation taxes" you mentioned, which would effectively negate earlier margin gains. Nevertheless, I expect a final leg up driven by this efficiency boom before that intervention takes hold.
In this new era, I have been thinking about what it actually means to have a moat. It might come down to having the strongest balance sheets with a low cost of capital, critical physical infrastructure, or proprietary licenses.
While I have been bullish on the hypergambling trend, the threat of mass unemployment creates a fork in the road. It remains to be seen if this environment stifles speculation or triggers 2021 style stimulus measures that propel speculation to new highs.
Definitely much uncertainty, which made me raise cash and position quite defensively and avoid hyperscalers in index funds.
Curious about what specific companies have such beautiful houses and beautiful management teams that you're invested in besides carvana?
really well written. I probably disagree with mostly everything
/chumba_world
Equities are for women. Full port SPX6900
Thanks for the article, some pretty uncommon common-sense takes. Loved it.
First time I’ve read you (since I can’t afford the $1M standard to follow you on X).
Thanks.